Because
networks operate behind the scenes in our homes and businesses, we usually
don’t think about them unless something goes wrong. Yet computer network
technology is continuing to develop in new and interesting ways. Some key
developments that have transpired over the past several years include:
- The growing popularity of cloud computing and cloud storage.
Instead of buying physical copies of movie, music and game media,
consumers increasingly buy digital licenses and download (or stream) their content over the internet.
- Improvements to mobile
(cellular) network infrastructure – both deployments of 4G and also
enhancements to older 3G networks - that have enabled people in developed
areas who can afford it to use their smartphones as mobile televisions
and video broadcasting systems.
- Along with that, a underlying
need of some people to stay connected at all times, whether via a home
network, at the workplace, via public Wi-Fi hotspots or smartphones.
- The difficulty faced by service
providers (including Google) in expanding residential fiber optic cable internet service
due to installation costs and increasingly competition from other
broadband providers.
Here
are five of the most important areas and trends to watch in the year ahead.
How Many IoT Gadgets Will You Buy?
The
networking industry likes to make and sell gadgets. Consumers like to buy
gadgets… as long as they seem useful and the price is right. In 2018, an array
of new devices targeted at the Internet of Things (IoT) market will
undoubtedly compete for our attention. Categories of products that will be
especially interesting to watch include:
- Wearables of all kinds: Will
there be a follow-on to the Apple Watch Series, or a new product from
a competitor, that takes the wrist device market by storm? And what about
glasses?
- Smart kitchens: If all of
our kitchen appliances could talk to each other, would they have anything
interesting to say?
- Smarter light bulbs (Wi-Fi or Bluetooth-enabled lighting systems):
Expect additional improvements in bulb quality, programming options and
ease of integration.
- Public (social) applications:
Besides equipment in our homes, IoT can have applications in stores,
restaurants, and municipal locations.
Will
your answer be zero? Skeptics claim that few IoT products will enjoy success in
the mainstream market expecting that their practical uses are limited. Some
fear the privacy risks that accompany IoT. With inside access to a person's
home and their health or other personal data, these devices provide an
attractive target for online attackers.
Digital
fatigue also threatens to dampen interest in IoT. With only so many hours
in the day, and people already overwhelmed by the number of amount of data and
interfaces they must deal with to keep their existing gear running, new IoT
devices face an uphill battle for time and attention.
02
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Get Ready for Even More Hype over 5G
Even
while 4G LTE mobile networks don't reach many
parts of the world (and won't for years), the telecommunications industry
has been hard at work developing the next-generation “5G” cellular
communication technology.
5G is
intended to boost the speeds of mobile connections dramatically. Exactly how
fast consumers should expect these connections to go, and when can they buy 5G
devices? These questions might not be answered definitively during 2018 as
the industry technical standards need to gel first.
However,
just like what happened years ago when 4G was initially being developed,
companies aren’t waiting and won’t be shy about advertising their 5G efforts.
Prototype versions of some elements of what might someday become part of
standard 5G networks will continue to be tested in labs. While reports from
these tests will tout maximum data rates of many gigabits per second (Gbps),
consumers should be just as interested in the promise of improved signal
coverage with 5G.
Some
vendors will undoubtedly start to retrofit this tech into their 4G
installations: Look for “4.5G” and “pre-5G” products (and the confusing
marketing claims that go along with such vaguely defined labels) to appear on
the scene sooner rather than later.
03
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The Pace of IPv6 Rollout Continues to Accelerate
Google IPv6
Adoption (2016).
IPv6
will one day replace the traditional Internet Protocol addressing system we are
familiar with (called IPv4). The Google IPv6 Adoption page
illustrates roughly how fast the deployment of IPv6 is progressing. As shown,
the pace of IPv6 rollout has continued to accelerate since 2013 but will
require many more years to reach a full replacement of IPv4. In 2018,
expect to see IPv6 mentioned in the news more often, especially pertaining to
business computer networks.
IPv6
benefits everyone either directly or indirectly. By expanding the
available IP address space to accommodate an almost limited number of devices,
managing subscriber accounts becomes easier for Internet providers. IPv6 adds
other improvements, too, that improve the efficiency and security of TCP/IP traffic management on the
Internet. People who administer home networks need to learn a new style
of IP address notation, but this is not too
difficult.
04
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The Rise (and Fall?) of Multi-Band Routers
TP-Link Talon
AD7200 Multi-Band Wi-Fi Router. tplink.com
Tri-band
home wireless routers emerged as a popular home
networking product category during 2016. Dual-band wireless broadband
routers began the trend to multi-band Wi-Fi networking starting with 802.11n,
and tri-band models continue that trend of offering ever greater amounts
of total network bandwidth on both the 2.4 GHz and 5 GHz bands.
Some
consumers may be challenged to justify the premium prices that newer tri-band
models carry. Whereas the trend for most consumer electronics is toward lower
prices, tri-band routers cost significantly more than did higher end models a
few years ago. Look for the prices to come down in the next year as vendor
competition increases.
Or
maybe tri-band will quietly fade away in favor of something else. Though
vendors might try to introduce models with even higher bandwidth ratings,
the diminishing returns of having more network capacity inside a home are
already reached for many families.
Most
likely, products that attempt to integrate the functions of a router together
with Internet of Things (IoT) gateway support will prove more interesting to
the average consumer. Eventually, but probably not within the next year, home
gateways that combine Wi-Fi together
with 4G or 5G connectivity options could also become very popular.
05
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Should You Be Afraid of Artificial Intelligence (AI)?
The
field of AI develops computers and machines with human-like intelligence. When
world-renowned scientist Steven Hawking (in late 2014) said "The
development of full artificial intelligence could spell
the end of the human race," people took notice. AI is not new –
researchers have studied it for decades. Yet in recent years, the pace of
technical developments in artificial intelligence has significantly
accelerated. Should we be worried about the direction it is headed in 2018?
In
short, the answer is – maybe. The ability of computer systems like Deep Blue to
play chess at world champion levels helped legitimize AI 20 years ago. Since
then, both the processing speed of computers and the ability to exploit it have
advanced tremendously as evidenced by the impressive victories of AlphaGo over
world-class Go players.
One
key barrier to more general-purpose artificial intelligence has been limits on
the ability of AI systems to communicate and interact with the outside world.
With the much faster wireless connections speeds available today, now it is
possible to add sensors and network interfaces to AI systems that will enable
impressive new applications.
People
tend to underestimate the capabilities of AI today, as the most advanced
systems tend to be isolated from the internet and not integrated with the rest
of our tech... or with each other. Watch for big developments in this area
sooner rather than later.